Months of speculation, anticipation, and guesswork just evaporated. And Ilia Topuria is right at the center of the chaos. Ever since ‘El Matador’ beat Charles Oliveira to capture the vacant lightweight title, everyone has been asking the same question: Who’s next for the Spaniard? Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett, and Arman Tsarukyan have all loudly staked their claims, but the fight talk has suddenly disappeared into thin air.

The lightweight champion recently said that if he isn’t given a shot at Islam Makhachev next, he’d be open to settling his score with Pimblett. Naturally, most fans assumed that whoever he faced, it would happen in January to launch the UFC’s massive $7.7 billion deal with Paramount at UFC 324. But according to a recent report, he’s not even on the UFC 324 lineup. Instead, his first title defense is now expected to take place much later.

The lightweight division is about to shift (from Ilia Topuria)

According to Alvaro Colmenero, known for delivering credible updates on Ilia Topuria, there’s been a major shift behind the scenes. He claims that private matters have pushed back the champion’s return. “Things have changed a lot. There have been private situations, and you’re going to be very surprised at what’s going to happen in lightweight,” Colmenero said. So, when does Topuria return? The journalist believes the Spanish star won’t be back until spring.

“I can confirm that Ilia will not fight in January. February? I doubt it a lot. If you ask me, I think Ilia will fight in the Spring,” he added. And to make matters worse, at least for the No. 1 lightweight contender, Colmenero revealed that Arman Tsarukyan isn’t even being considered. “I think the top part of the lightweight division is going to shift, but I doubt that Tsarukyan is in the equation for fighting Topuria in the spring/summer of 2026.”

With the historic White House card set for the beginning of summer in June, it’s very possible that Topuria is aiming to make his first title defense on the biggest card in UFC history. His opponent? Still unknown. But if Tsarukyan, the No. 1 contender, is out of the picture, what’s stopping the UFC from skipping Justin Gaethje, too? That leaves Paddy Pimblett as a realistic option for a title shot. The conversation doesn’t end there, though.

Ilia Topuria is set to hold the division hostage

With no action expected for at least the next four months—spring spanning from March to June—it’s not outrageous to assume that Topuria might end up vacating the belt. Why? To let the division move forward naturally. Instead, the situation appears to be heading in the opposite direction, as Ilia Topuria risks holding the division hostage by delaying his first title defense.

After the news surfaced, West Till Death on X made the same assumption. “Ilia Topuria is rumored to be vacating the lightweight title, & won’t return until spring 2026… He claims we’re going to be very surprised [by] what happens with the # UFC lightweight division,” they wrote. However, the rumor was quickly shut down by MMA insider Benny P. “Ilia Topuria is not vacating from what I’ve been told,” he wrote on X.

Still, questions about the champions’ activity are starting to pop up. Since starting in the UFC in October 2020, Topuria has been the definition of inconsistency over his five-year tenure. He fought twice in 2020, once in 2021, and the cycle of two fights a year followed by just one the next year continued into 2025. There were three bouts canceled for him in 2022 for no fault of his own. But as champion, the issues seem to be stemming from his side.

For now, fans will have to wait much longer to watch Ilia Topuria fight and potentially even see a new [interim] champion emerge. What do you think caused the delay? Should he relinquish the title?