Carlos Alcaraz is yet to win a Grand Slam title on Australian soil. His best runs in Melbourne have been in the quarterfinals in 2024 and 2025. But this time, the Spaniard looks more determined than ever to conquer the title.

2025 was not particularly easy for the 22-year-old, especially with some changes that could drastically change his game. Let’s take a closer look at a few reasons why the opportunity might slip away this year as well:

1. Unexpected coaching change

On December 17, Alcaraz and his longtime coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, announced the end of their seven-year partnership. The news stunned fans, especially after a season where Alcaraz lifted eight trophies (the most in his career), including two Grand Slams, three Masters titles, and a return to the World No. 1 ranking. Few expected such a successful campaign to close with a split.

Together, the duo built one of the most impressive resumes in modern tennis. Under Ferrero’s guidance, Carlos Alcaraz evolved from a teenage prodigy into a six-time Grand Slam champion and one of the sport’s most thrilling talents, collecting 24 tour-level titles along the way. Ferrero was there from the moment Alcaraz claimed his first major in 2022, guiding every step of his rise. But in 2026, that familiar presence will no longer be in his corner.

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Reports suggest the split followed a disagreement over contract renewal, though Ferrero has confirmed the separation was mutual. Alcaraz has stayed silent for now, choosing instead to focus on the road ahead. Taking Ferrero’s place for the Australian Open is Samuel Lopez, who will lead the Spaniard into a fresh chapter. But whether he can be of help in Melbourne is an entirely different question.

2. Undergoing a ⁠serve change

Word has it that the 22-year-old’s main priority over the offseason was improving his serve, a project that had already taken shape in 2024 but gained even more importance this time. Determined to arrive in Melbourne in peak form, he practiced specific drills for precision and control, including one where he aimed his ball toss through a mini basketball hoop.

Observers quickly noticed something new in his motion. His serving rhythm and toss now closely resemble Novak Djokovic’s technique, sparking speculation about a long-term adjustment in his mechanics. The repetition in practice looked intentional rather than experimental, suggesting a deliberate effort to build a smoother, more natural service motion that he hopes to perfect by 2026.

Alcaraz is aware that his serve still offers room for growth. Standing at 183 centimeters, he lacks the leverage of taller players who can hit from a higher point, so he continues developing ways to add power and disguise. The mechanical tweak he introduced in early 2025 paid off late in the season, even though his first-serve percentage remains close to the tour average at 63.8 percent.

He averaged 2.4 double faults per match and won 56.2 percent of points on his second serve, highlighting clear targets for improvement. Data from TennisInsights shows he often aims at opponents’ backhands, a pattern this new technique could diversify to make him even more unpredictable in 2026. But that’s not his only threat.

3. ⁠Sinner to look for revenge

If there’s one man who owns Rod Laver Arena right now, it’s Jannik Sinner. The World No. 2, who lost his top spot to Carlos Alcaraz at the 2025 US Open after holding it for 65 weeks, has made Melbourne his stage. Sinner captured his first Grand Slam title there in 2024 by defeating Daniil Medvedev and backed it up in 2025 with another stunning triumph over Alexander Zverev. At just 24, he’s already reached the final of all four majors and the ATP Finals in a single season.

Sinner’s record at the year-end championships only adds to his legend: two titles from three appearances and a dazzling 15-2 record, including ten straight wins. Overall, the Italian has won four Grand Slams, all under one coach: Darren Cahill. The Australian coach announced his retirement to commence once the 2025 season ended. But in a twist, they decided to go another season! Which could be trouble for his rival.

His growing rivalry with Carlos Alcaraz has become tennis’s brightest spotlight, with the two splitting three Grand Slam finals in 2025, Alcaraz winning at Roland Garros and the US Open, and the Italian striking back at Wimbledon before sealing the season with the ATP Finals crown.

Still, it’s a steep climb since the Spaniard still hasn’t moved past the Melbourne quarterfinals. Falling to Djokovic in 2025 and Zverev in 2024. With the World No.2 chasing a three-peat and their rivalry burning hotter than ever, all eyes now turn to see if Alcaraz can finally crack the code Down Under. Although Alcaraz is pretty clear about his targets.

4. Carlos Alcaraz is all about getting into the rhythm.

“The main thing for me is Grand Slams, try to win as many Grand Slams as I can. That’s my main goal,” is what Carlos told the official Australian Open website. “I think [the AO is] going to be great. It’s my first goal, to be honest. When I just go to the pre-seasons to what I want to improve, what I want to achieve, Australian Open is there. It’s the first or second tournament of the year, and it is always the main goal for me to complete a Career Grand Slam, Calendar Grand Slam.”

Still, when asked about his chances in Melbourne, the Spaniard didn’t sugarcoat his answer. Since the Australian Open basically kicks off the season, there’s little to no time for players to compete in warm up tournaments like before the other three Grand Slams.

“I think because it’s the first tournament of the year. It’s about getting into rhythm. It’s not that it doesn’t suit me; it’s just that some players do better there, or when we’ve competed, it’s come down to small details,” he explained.

“I think I’ve played very good tennis in Australia; I’ve just missed that final step to go further. I believe and hope this year will be different. My objective for 2026 is Australia, and the good and the bad thing is that it’s the first tournament of the year. We’ll try to be as ready and as well prepared as possible to show a good level and hopefully achieve the goal we want,” he added.

The confidence is unmistakable, and so is the determination. At 22, Alcaraz is already stacking up numbers reminiscent of tennis royalty. His 2025 season was a showstopper: two Grand Slam titles at the US Open and Roland Garros, eight trophies overall, nine straight finals between April and September, and a staggering 71 wins from 80 matches.

If he lifts the 2026 Australian Open trophy, he’ll become the youngest player ever to complete a Career Grand Slam, surpassing Rafael Nadal, who was 24 when he did it. But is the Spaniard preparing himself for the upcoming Grand Slam?

5. Poor display in exhibition matches

After wrapping up the 2025 season at the ATP Finals in Turin, Jannik Sinner took a break. Carlos Alcaraz didn’t. Even after pulling out of the Davis Cup Finals with a muscular edema, announced on November 18, the World No. 1 hit the court again. He played at the Miami Invitational with Joao Fonseca and later at Racquet at the Rock with Frances Tiafoe. Fans enjoyed it, but critics weren’t thrilled.

Among them was Steve Flink, a veteran voice of the game and member of the International Tennis Hall of Fame. On the Court-Side with Beilinson Tennis podcast, he said the Spaniard should be focusing on Melbourne, not money.

“Carlos has never shown us his best form in Australia… I don’t think Ferrero and his team are very keen on Carlos spending his off-season playing exhibition matches. He has every right to do so, but he has his whole life to earn money. He has so much time to fill his bank account that I think it would have been wiser for him not to participate in these tournaments last year,” Flink said via We Love Tennis.

Carlos Alcaraz didn’t shy away from answering back. To him, exhibitions are easy compared to tour events.

“First of all, it’s normal for people to think this way and not understand why we complain about the busy schedule and then participate in exhibition matches,” he told the Associated Press. “The biggest difference is that in a tournament you have to stay focused and it is expensive both from a physical and mental point of view. A performance is only one day.”

He added, “You just have to stay focused, warm up, train not so much and only for one match.”

Still, only time will tell if the Spaniard will take the title away. For now, he’ll skip warm-up tournaments for the 2026 Australian Open, but will make one more stop in South Korea with Jannik Sinner. When the lights come up in Melbourne, the big question is clear: can the 22-year-old defy the odds and take the crown?