The NFL’s MVP throne is proving to be the league’s hottest seat, and after Week 14, veteran Matthew Stafford has decided it’s his turn to sit down again. Drake Maye sits right behind him, trying to close the gap. Jordan Love and Josh Allen remain the two serious contenders with a chance at the throne. Meanwhile, the other players have slimmer chances, not too different from lottery tickets. Vegas has spoken, and this is a two-man race, at least for now.

If this season has shown us anything, it’s that these expectations can shift in just a single week. As we head deeper into December chaos, here’s the Essentially Sports MVP Ladder for Week 15, a look at the top contenders and those grasping at straws. With just four weeks left, anything can happen now.

5. Dak Prescott: In search of a miracle

Dak Prescott’s MVP dream might have just taken a major blow on Thursday night in Detroit. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback was leading the league’s best offense and had Dallas back in playoff contention after a rough start. But with a critical interception with barely a little more than a minute left in regulation, the Detroit Lions demolished those hopes.

What stung more was that Prescott is still the league leader in passing yards (3,637) and QBR (73.4). But no amount of clutch throws could help him with his team just playing catch-up. A lot of narratives have popped up about how the offense looks less energetic than they’ve done all season, but you just can’t ignore the fact that their secondary just gave up 44 points in a matchup they probably couldn’t afford to lose. At +10000 odds, the sportsbooks paint a truly bleak picture. For a team that could be watching January football from their couches, MVP talk doesn’t hold much momentum anymore.

4. Josh Allen: Pushing through the snow

Josh Allen delivered a clinical performance for the Buffalo Bills once again. This time, it had the perfect backdrop of a snowy Christmas card. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns while adding 78 rushing yards in a hard-fought battle against the Cincinnati Bengals. That 40-yard touchdown scramble in the fourth quarter broke his own Bills rushing record, slicing through snow and defenders like butter. Four total touchdowns in a 39-34 victory: pure December football.

As impressive as this performance was, there’s still a problem. Allen needs to do exponentially more still to win this award twice, and his 10 interceptions won’t help. Week 15 brings the New England Patriots and a chance to knock them down from the No. 2 seed in the AFC. If Buffalo beats New England and the Philadelphia Eagles down the stretch, Allen could force his way back in. At +1500 odds, though, it’s an uphill battle in a blizzard.

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3. Jordan Love: The closest competitor

Jordan Love has lit up the league when it mattered most. Seven touchdown passes in his last two games helped the Green Bay Packers sit atop the brutal NFC North. Against the Chicago Bears in Week 14, he kept rolling and knocked them out of the No. 1 Seed in the NFC. Love thrives under the lights and has sparked his offense for a late-season surge while his defense keeps making stops. He remains the only player closest to the top two, albeit divided by a big margin.

The Packers lead their division thanks to Love’s 22 touchdown passes on the season against just four picks, but inconsistency haunts him. 7 sacks in two games early in the season. Ugly upset losses to Cleveland and Carolina. He’s still volatile. Road tests at the Denver Broncos and a Bears squad hungry for revenge loom in the next two weeks. At +1000 odds, he remains the dark horse in our MVP race.

2. Drake Maye: Bye week reshuffle, big week ahead

Drake Maye rests 2nd in passing yards (3,412) and 3rd in QBR (72.2). Nobody saw this coming at the start of the season. Last week, he was the clear favorite to win the MVP, but the New England Patriots sat on their bye in Week 14. New England’s 11-2 record has them at the No. 2 Seed in the AFC. With a two-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East, Drake Maye has delivered one of the best stories in football this year.

But Week 15 will be Maye’s defining moment. A Sunday showdown with Buffalo, where a win effectively clinches the AFC East. Then, a prime-time battle against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 looms. Critics point to New England’s tough schedule ahead, but the Patriots are on a 10-game winning streak. At +365 odds, Maye needs to beat two former MVP winners in the next two weeks to steal the spotlight. 

1. Matthew Stafford: The veteran who owns the game

Matthew Stafford just proved that his Week 13 slump was nothing more than a minor setback. After a three-turnover disaster against Carolina, he dissected the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. 22 of 31 for 281 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-17 demolition. Puka Nacua torched the Cardinals for 167 yards and two scores, but it was Stafford’s command that mattered the most. 

At 37 years old and leading the NFC’s No. 1 seed, Stafford is chasing the only trophy missing from his Hall of Fame resume. He still leads the league with 35 touchdowns. The next two weeks will be massive for him.

A reunion with Detroit in Week 15 and a Thursday night AFC West showdown with the Seattle Seahawks. Both these defenses have been punishing teams all season, and Stafford needs to prove that Carolina was an aberration. At -180 odds, he’s the clear favorite heading into Week 15.

Challengers and challenges on the cusp

Bo Nix has helped the Denver Broncos claim the AFC’s top seed. But their defense has to be credited for this rise in the face of an uneven performance from their quarterback. At +10000 odds, he needs to win out the remaining four weeks to make any kind of splash in the MVP conversation.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the only non-quarterback in the conversation with steep +15000 odds. He leads the league in receiving yards (1,428), but the Seattle Seahawks wideout needs 2,000 receiving yards to make his case. That’s a steep ask of 143 yards per game over the final four weeks.

Justin Herbert is playing through the pain of a fractured left hand, and the Los Angeles Chargers sit at the AFC’s No. 6 seed thanks to his resilience. But at +15000 odds, his heroics won’t matter if he can’t win out the last four. 

For now, the MVP race is Matthew Stafford’s to lose while Drake Maye lurks one big week away from stealing it back again. Many would be hoping for December chaos and maybe a Christmas miracle. The final stretch will decide everything.