Every year, the NFL hands out multiple awards at its annual NFL Honors show. One of those awards is the NFL Coach of the Year, given to the best coach of the season. While many may assume winning this award would be an honor, it has proven to be anything but.

Since 2018, six different NFL head coaches have won the Coach of the Year award. Of those six, five have been fired. The only one who hasn’t is Kevin O’Connell, who won in 2024, just under a year ago. And for a little bit, it looked like O’Connell could have joined the list this offseason, but a late resurgence from the Minnesota Vikings potentially saved his job.

I’m sure most of you have heard of the Madden curse. For years, the player who was on the cover of Madden would follow it up with a terrible season. That curse has (mostly) been broken over the past few years, only to be replaced by the Coach of the Year curse.

Let’s take a look back at all the coaches who have been fired after winning Coach of the Year, and who some of the favorites are to win it in 2025.

2018: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears

Matt Nagy was the man who started the COTY curse. In 2018, his first season as the Chicago Bears head coach, Nagy took home COTY honors after leading the Bears to a 12-4 record and their first playoff berth in seven years, just one season after Chicago won five games. Nagy and the Bears lost in the Wild Card round, but it was a promising first season for the first-year head coach.

Nagy’s success in Chicago didn’t last long, though. After 2018, the Bears would never win more than eight games in the regular season, but they did manage to make the playoffs in 2020, just to get blown out by the New Orleans Saints in the Wild Card round. The Bears won just six games the following season, and Nagy was let go, starting the streak of COTY winners getting fired soon after.

2019: John Harbaugh

John Harbaugh lasted a little longer than the rest of these guys after winning the award in 2019. Harbaugh led the Baltimore Ravens to a 14-2 record in 2019 and the 1-seed in the AFC. Despite their near-perfect record, the Ravens were bounced in the Divisional Round by the Titans, who blew them out on their home field. Harbaugh would, obviously, retain his job and lead the Ravens to the playoffs in four of the next five seasons.

2025 brought a lot of expectations. After falling short of the AFC Championship game in 2024, the team thought they had a chance to make it back this year, but injuries started piling up early, and the Ravens got off to a 1-5 start. They were able to claw their way back into the AFC North race, but they fell short in the end, missing the postseason. Harbaugh was fired just a few days ago and is one of the hottest coaches on the market.

2020, 2023: Kevin Stefanski

Kevin Stefanski has won the COTY award twice since 2020, but even he was not safe from the COTY curse. Stefanski led the Cleveland Browns to an 11-5 record in his first year as Cleveland’s head coach, and even won them a playoff game before losing in the Divisional Round. It was the Browns’ first playoff appearance in 18 years, and their first playoff win in 23.

A few years later, in 2023, Stefanski did it again. The Browns won 11 games and made it to the postseason, but lost in the Wild Card round. Still, it was enough to earn Stefanski his second COTY award, but after winning just eight games in the last two seasons, Stefanski was let go. He is also considered to be one of the best coaches on the market this year.

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2021: Mike Vrabel

Mike Vrabel took over as the Tennessee Titans’ head coach in 2018 and led them to three consecutive playoff berths from 2019-2021. It wasn’t until that last season that he won COTY for leading the Titans to the 1-seed in the AFC. The Titans were bounced in the Divisional round after their bye, but it’s a regular-season award, and Vrabel was honored for his work with Tennessee.

Vrabel was evidently on a pretty short leash, though. Following the 2021 season, the Titans won 13 combined games over the next two years, and the Titans let him go. After a year off, Vrabel was hired by the New England Patriots, and he has led them to the 2-seed in the AFC, and the Titans are picking fourth in the NFL Draft after firing Vrabel’s predecessor just a handful of games into 2025. I think I know who won that battle.

2022: Brian Daboll

Brian Daboll looked like one of the best hirings in a long time in 2022 after he led the New York Giants to the playoffs, and even won a game against the 13-4 Vikings with Daniel Jones as his quarterback in year one. Fans and players adored him, but things quickly soured in the Big Apple.

In 2023 and 2024, the Giants won a total of nine games, obviously missing the playoffs both years. 2025 was a prove-it year for Daboll, who brought in Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart. But after a 2-8 start, the Giants made the decision to cut ties with the former COTY midseason, making him the next in a long line of COTY winners to be fired.

2025 Coach of the Year Favorites

Five of the last six COTY winners have been fired within a few years of winning the award. The exception is Harbaugh, who lasted six more seasons but was still axed. We know O’Connell is safe for now, but let’s look at some of the favorites to win this year’s COTY award to see who could be joining this list soon.

According to FanDuel, Mike Vrabel is the heavy favorite to win the award with -230 odds. Obviously, he’s already found himself on this list, so it would be interesting to see if he’d meet the same fate in New England were he to win it in 2025.

Behind Vrabel is Seattle Head Coach Mike Macdonald. The second-year coach has led the Seahawks to the 1-seed in the NFC and has transformed their defense into one of the best in the league. It’s hard to see them falling off anytime soon, but you could’ve said the same things for a lot of the aforementioned coaches.

Liam Coen is the only other coach within striking distance with +750 odds. In his first year with Jacksonville, he’s led the Jaguars to a 13-4 record and the 3-seed in the AFC. Again, hard to see him and the Jags falling off in the near future, but crazier things have happened.

Is the Coach of the Year curse real? Or is it just a strange run that’s bound to end soon? I guess we’ll find out in the coming years.