The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans will clash on Sunday Night Football with a lot on the line. Both teams are on the AFC playoff bubble, and this game will put one of them in a pretty good spot, and the other all but out of contention. With a win, the Chiefs’ playoff odds jump to 49 percent, but a loss would drop them to 11 percent. For the Texans, a win would put them at 85 percent, and a loss would bring them down to 49 percent.

While the playoffs are the most important thing in this game, let’s not forget about the fantasy football implications this game has. It’s the final week of the regular season for many leagues, so this could be your final chance to make a push, and with these two defenses, figuring out who to start and sit can be difficult. But that’s why I’m here.

I broke down this game and gave my best starts and sits for the Chiefs vs Texans.

Fantasy Breakdown

Before we get into the start, sit recommendations. Here’s a table breaking down how many points each team gives up to each position group, and where that ranks across the league.

Note: 32nd means they give up the most points. 1st means they give up the fewest points.

So what does this table mean?

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The Chiefs’ defense has fallen off quite a bit in recent weeks, especially against the pass. They used to rank in the top 10 in every single category, but are now 17th against QBs and 14th against WRs. They’re still very good against the run, but they need to be better in the secondary.

The Texans’ defense is elite in pretty much every category. They’re a nightmare for opposing QBs and WRs, and while their run defense isn’t as good as their pass defense, they still rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Best Starts

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

I think this will be a pretty low-scoring game, so I don’t think there are a ton of great starts, but considering the way Kansas City’s secondary has been playing recently, I think Nico Collins could have a big game. Collins has scored 20+ in three of his last four games, so he is very clearly the focal point of this offense. I don’t know if he’ll hit the 20-point mark, but he should definitely be able to deliver 15+.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce has really turned things on over the past month, so I have no doubt in my mind that, even against a great defense, he’ll have a big game. Especially in a game that Kansas City needs to win, when Patrick Mahomes needs someone to make a play, he’s going to look Kelce’s way. Expect a 13+ point outing from him on Sunday night.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

You know how I was saying Mahomes is going to look Kelce’s way when he needs a big play? Well, he’ll also look Rashee Rice’s way, because he has become one of the best receivers in the NFL. Ever since Rice has returned from his suspension, he’s averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game. I know the Texans are very good against the pass, but Rice is going to get 9+ targets in this game, so even if he doesn’t hit his 21-point average, he’s going to score in the high-teens.

Best Sits

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is almost always a start, especially with how he’s been playing recently, but the Houston Texans are QB killers. They’ve neutralized some of the league’s best this year, and there’s no reason to believe Mahomes is going to be the exception. I think he can rack up a ton of yards, which is why Kelce and Rice are starts, but I don’t see him throwing more than one touchdown in this game.

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans

Woody Marks hasn’t had a big fantasy day in a few weeks now, but he’s consistently seen 17+ touches over the past three games. The Texans really want to get him going, but they’ve just struggled to move the ball on the ground with Marks only averaging over 4.0 yards per carry one time in his last three games. Unfortunately for Marks, the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so I don’t see him getting much traction this week.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud has been very disappointing this season, and I don’t see that changing this week. Kansas City’s pass defense may not be as good as it was early in the year, but Stroud’s been shut down quite a few times, so the Chiefs should be able to do the same. Despite his struggles, Nico Collins has still had some big games, so while Collins is a start, I’m benching Stroud immediately.