What a stretch it’s been for the Miami Dolphins. From a 3–7 start, to GM Chris Grier getting fired, to Tua Tagovailoa throwing an interception seemingly every week, this season has veered from frustration into full-blown uncertainty. And now the real question hangs over everything: Will they move on from Tua? Well, more importantly, can they?

A recent excerpt from The Athletic tells us there might be another season in store for the quarterback.

“The Dolphins’ contract with Tagovailoa carries $54 million fully guaranteed salary for 2026, which might have cost general manager Chris Grier his job while extending the runway for coach Mike McDaniel, who has brought out the best in the quarterback to this point, albeit with diminishing returns of late,” The Athletic’s Mike Sando wrote.

In other words, the quarterback might get one more shot simply because it’ll be too big a financial burden to part ways just yet. And honestly, based on how tense things have looked between McDaniel and Tua, Miami might have floated the idea of turning the page if it weren’t for the numbers.

But the numbers are that brutal.

Tua’s 2026 cap hit is $56.4 million. Cutting him next offseason? That would trigger $99.2 million in dead money, thanks to the structure of his deal that includes void years, injury guarantees, and the $54 million base salary fully guaranteed in 2026.

Releasing him before the 2030 void year option would put the entire amount on Miami’s books at once.

So, the Dolphins’ best path is hoping Tua Tagovailoa rebounds next year. And to be fair, the bar isn’t that high compared to how he’s played this season. He’s thrown 13 interceptions, owns an 87.6 passer rating, and hasn’t had a single game where he’s carried the offense the way he did in 2022 or early 2023.

Still, if it all completely falls apart, the Dolphins already know who their fallback plan would be.

Dolphins eyeing a $230 million replacement for Tua

ESPN’s Dan Graziano added another wrinkle to Miami’s quarterback situation this week. He floated the Dolphins as a team that could jump into the market if they’re no longer convinced Tua Tagovailoa is their long-term answer… and if Cardinals‘ QB Kyler Murray becomes available.

“I’d add Miami to that list if it gets to the end of the season and doesn’t feel convinced Tua Tagovailoa is its long-term quarterback, which is certainly possible. Most people I talk to about the Murray situation doubt that the Cardinals will be able to trade that contract, which means he’d likely be released before that 2027 money triggers next March,” Graziano said.

If Murray does get released, that could be a gift for Miami. He’d almost certainly have to sign a short-term, low-cost deal to rebuild his value. On paper, it’s the kind of move that could give the Dolphins a fresh start at quarterback without the massive financial hit that comes with moving off Tua.

The problem? Dolphins don’t avoid the financial hit.

Even if Murray walked in the door at a discount, the money tied to Tua’s contract still detonates on their cap if they try to move on now. So any savings they get with Murray would be offset by the giant dead-money bill attached to Tagovailoa’s deal. That’s the kind of decision an interim GM like Champ Kelly would hate to make.

Purely from a football standpoint, almost no one doubts what Murray can do when healthy.

Before landing on injured reserve with a foot injury last week, he’d thrown for 962 yards, six touchdowns, and three picks in five starts. It hasn’t been a good year for him or the Cardinals, but everyone knows what he’s capable of.

If he hits the open market, there will be no shortage of suitors. He’d be a real asset to any team looking for a spark at quarterback. For Miami, it all comes back to finances.