A ticket to the national championship game is on the line when Indiana takes on Oregon at the Peach Bowl on January 9. It’s a Big Ten regular-season rematch, and both schools look as vulnerable as they were throughout the season. While it looks hard to predict a winner between the two, FOX analyst Joel Klatt made a bold pick.

While previewing the Indiana vs. Oregon, CFP Semifinal matchup, Joel Klatt picked Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers as the 4.5 favorite over Dan Lanning’s Ducks.

“I’m going to take Indiana on this one,” predicted Joel Klatt on the January 05 episode of The Joel Klatt Show. “They are 4.5-point favorites. I’m going to give those 4.5. I’m going to take Indiana 27-21, and they’ll go play for a national championship. It should be a great game, and I can’t wait for it.”

Earlier this year, in the regular-season matchup, Indiana defeated Oregon by 30-20 at Autzen Stadium. This game effectively decided the Big Ten title game, where Indiana went on to win the conference championship, defeating Ohio State, while Oregon was dropped to No. 3 in the B1G conference ranking. Despite the home loss to the Hoosiers, the Ducks haven’t lost a single game throughout the season.

If you take a closer look at the previous game, Indiana had the better defensive game and made better use of the turnovers to secure the win, which the Hoosiers did throughout the season. Oregon produced a season-low 267 yards on total offense and barely rushed, earning only 81 yards on the ground game. On the other hand, Dante Moore threw two interceptions in the loss and was sacked six times (season high), losing the turnover battle.

If you compare both teams on paper, Indiana is ranked seventh in total offense, averaging 468.1 yards per game, whereas Oregon is ranked 14th, averaging 457.5 yards per game. Though the numbers look similar, the points per game give the difference. Indiana averages 41.6 points per game, ranking third in the country, whereas Oregon gains 38 points per game, ranking ninth.

On the defense, both have one of the strongest defenses in the country: Indiana (2nd) and Oregon (6th). However, the difference that gives Indiana the edge is the penalty yards per game. Oregon ranks 54th in the FBS, averaging 50.2 penalty yards per game, compared to Indiana’s 2nd-ranked 27.1 per-game average.

Though Klatt favored Indiana over Oregon, he still believes that the Ducks are one of the few teams that ‘can go out there and hang with this Indiana team,’ hinting that the Ducks still have a chance.

Joel Klatt’s advice for Dan Lanning’s Oregon for the Peach Bowl

The Fox analyst believes that Oregon still has a chance if it keeps control of certain mistakes. He stated that Oregon’s defensive line, Dante Moore’s turnovers, and the run games are the keys to posting a win over Indiana. Klatt remembered how missed opportunities and turnovers could turn costly against the Hoosiers.

“Oregon has to play really well on the defensive front seven and stop that run game and hold them under four yards,” Joel Klatt said. “When they get their chances, Dante Moore in the offense, they have to capitalize; we can’t have the mistakes and the miscues like the penalties and the turnovers. Dan Lanning should have to manage a really great game, because if you miss an opportunity against Indiana, there’s a good likelihood that they will win the game. They’re just that surgical right now.

I think Oregon needs to run the football quite often, in particular early in the down. Try to create short yardage situations and allow Dante Moore the opportunity to have success because if you’re in passing situations against Indiana, the zone is too intricate.”

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He stated how the lack of rushing yards backfired for Julian Sayin and Ty Simpson in the last two matchups. Alabama only had 193 total yards, passing for 170 yards and rushing for 23 yards. It was the same thing against Ohio State, where Ohio only had 58 rushing yards, and Indiana had 118 rushing yards to secure the win.