Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame is currently No. 9 in the CFP rankings with a 9-2 record. Miami, with the same record, is No. 12 despite having won the head-to-head matchup between the two sides. Heading into Week 14, the Hurricanes may not be the issue for the Irish. However, according to Josh Pate, their fortunes may change for the worse if Sherrone Moore’s Michigan continues its streak against Ohio State.

“I think, based on the way this committee has operated in the past, if both went out, Miami belongs above Notre Dame,” Pate told Mike Greenberg while discussing the current playoff scenario. “It sounds for all the world like they’ve already made up their minds on it. And now they’re kind of applying data points in a reverse-engineered fashion to fit their preference.”

The committee really cares about who you lose to, and that’s where things swing hard in Notre Dame’s favor. Miami lost against unranked Louisville and SMU, while Notre Dame’s losses came against ranked teams. On top of that, all the numbers and the committee’s “eye test” lean toward the Irish. And since those early losses, Notre Dame has gained nine straight wins, most of them blowouts. So it’s precisely the kind of steady dominance the committee loves. The question remains: if Michigan beats Ohio State, do they get a playoff spot?

“I believe they’re number 15. If they’re ranked in the mid-teens already, and then you’re hypothetically telling me they add what would be the best win of any team all year, beating number one at the very end of the season. We have seen teams catapult up the rankings for fewer wins, relatively speaking,” Pate added.

“If Michigan beats Ohio State, it’s a whole separate drama. But as for the playoff rankings, yeah, they’ve got to be in there. That’s why, whether we’re talking about Ole Miss or Oregon or Georgia or Notre Dame or whoever or Oklahoma, these other teams could be at large.”

The situation can flip a major 360-degree for Notre Dame, because its playoff spot is not that solid. For Michigan, beating No. 1 Ohio State, which is an undefeated powerhouse, would be one of the biggest statements anyone could make this season. The CFP committee eats that stuff up, and honestly, that’s exactly why Notre Dame sits ahead of Miami right now.

For Michigan, a win like that would supercharge their résumé. It would boost their strength of schedule and clean up their record. How? Michigan’s two losses are both “quality” road losses to ranked teams in Oklahoma and USC. The committee also examines head-to-head matchups and how teams stack up against the same opponents. So if Michigan pulls off that huge win, they’d suddenly have a marquee victory Notre Dame doesn’t. And if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten title, both they and Notre Dame end up fighting for one of the seven at-large spots in the 12-team playoff.

Mario Cristobal’s frustration over Notre Dame getting the edge

Mario Cristobal didn’t hold back when asked about Notre Dame sitting comfortably ahead of Miami in the College Football Playoff rankings. “We’re just playing ball. We’re not slowing down,” Cristobal said. “Some people call it style points and all that other stuff. We’re just playing ball and trying to make our team better and stay aggressive. When we call it aggressive, our players play aggressively.” So he specifically attacks the CFP committee’s system of measuring marquee wins.

The Hurricanes came into Week 13 ranked 13. They are sitting four spots behind No. 9 Notre Dame, which sparked a big debate. Cristobal pointed out that while Notre Dame was running up the score with a 70-7 blowout against Syracuse, Miami had to grind out a 27-17 lead that turned into 34-17 only with a last-second touchdown. It was clear Miami was pushing hard, trying to maximize “style points.”

Cristobal framed it like this: College football is about the “field test,” not just the eye test or blowback wins. He emphasized that head-to-head results are the ultimate measure. Miami had done its part; yet, the committee’s numbers, which weigh losses differently, favored Notre Dame. Adding fuel to the fire, CFP chair Hunter Yurachek responded. “We really compare the losses of those two teams,” Yurachek said.