BYU football is on the precipice of something historic. For HC Kalani Sitake, the nightmare scenario is anything but abstract. The Cougars clinched their spot in the Big 12 Championship before even taking the field Saturday, a byproduct of Arizona State’s late Friday loss to Arizona. Now, all eyes are on Arlington where they face Texas Tech in a game that could very well determine their playoff fate.

“I don’t have all the answers and I can’t really speak on the other teams, but there’s a lot of really good football teams out there,” Kalani Sitake said in his conference speech on November 29 after beating UCF. “I can only speak for my team and what we can do and there’s a lot of teams that deserve to play in it and I think we’re one of them.”

His comments encapsulate BYU’s quiet confidence amid a chaotic playoff landscape. It’s also a critique of the CFP system itself. 

The nightmare scenario is simple. If BYU loses and Texas Tech wins the conference title game, the CFP committee’s subjective criteria may yet snub the Cougars. This would leave Kalani Sitake to navigate the fallout of a system he can neither control nor predict. But if history has shown anything, BYU’s resilience suggests they’ll rise to the occasion, even under the shadow of playoff uncertainty.

As it is, BYU’s resume is hard to dispute. Saturday’s 41-21 victory over UCF showcased the Cougars’ resilience. After falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter, they rattled off 31 unanswered points and smothered UCF’s run game, holding them to just 42 rushing yards. This marked their 11th win of the season, paired with a single loss to a top-five Big 12 opponent. Over the past two seasons in the league, the Cougars have won 22 of 25 games, firmly establishing themselves as one of the conference’s elite.

The numbers, however, are only part of the puzzle. The CFP committee’s penchant for selective analytics and the infamous eye test continues to frustrate BYU fans. One-loss teams from Power Five conferences often get the benefit of the doubt. But rising teams like BYU, despite stronger records or superior metrics, are scrutinized for a single misstep. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek’s recent comments that the Cougars’ initial 29-7 loss to Texas Tech didn’t look good exemplify the system’s subjectivity.

For Kalani Sitake and BYU, the stakes are existential. A first Big 12 title game in program history, the program’s second consecutive double-digit win season under his leadership, and the potential for a CFP berth all hang in the balance. One game will decide if the Cougars’ historic season earns its ultimate reward or becomes another footnote in the ongoing chaos of college football rankings.

What Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire said of BYU

BYU’s first-ever Big 12 title appearance will pit them against a familiar foe. Texas Tech, an original Big 12 member, also clinched a spot in the championship following ASU’s stumble. The Red Raiders, under HC Joey McGuire, boast an 11-1 record and a defense ranked in the top five nationally. The HC is full of confidence, insisting the postseason picture is clear.

“No matter what happens, I think BYU and Texas Tech should be in the playoffs,” he commented.

But there’s the rub. While Tech’s single loss came with extenuating circumstances including a Behren Morton injury against ASU, BYU faces a more precarious reality. The Cougars sit just outside the at-large cutline. A second loss in Arlington could easily end their CFP hopes, barring dramatic losses elsewhere, such as Alabama or Notre Dame faltering on the same weekend.

Texas Tech’s rise this season has been fueled by massive donor-backed investments, including a top-tier defense led by All-America linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Saturday’s 49-0 demolition of West Virginia highlighted the team’s firepower, outgaining the Mountaineers 572 yards to 180 and matching the program-record 11 regular-season wins set by the 2008 squad. Their consistency, every win by at least 20 points, positions them as one of the CFP’s safest bets, regardless of the championship outcome.

Saturday, Dec. 6, at AT&T Stadium will be BYU’s referendum on whether their record, resilience, and grit finally earn them a seat at the table in college football’s most exclusive club.