The top 12 of the CFP have been hotly debated over the placement of Notre Dame and Miami. Despite the head-to-head matchup going for Miami, Notre Dame remains ranked higher (10th) than Miami (12th), with both teams boasting a 10-2 record. On Sunday morning, depending on how chips fall today, the Hurricanes and the Irish may be sitting next to each other. But who will the committee put in their final ranking? Nick Saban has a clear favorite.

“Look at the game. Miami was a more physical team in the game. Jeremiyah Love gained 33 yards in the game. They won on the line scrimmage. They kicked Notre Dame’s a– in the game, and that’s being considered now,” said Nick Saban on ESPN College GameDay as he picked Miami in the debate.

One can say that the Miami vs Notre Dame game was decided on a field goal. And for the most part, it’s true. Notre Dame was sitting 24-24 to Miami with just 1.14 minutes left on the clock. All it took was a field goal from Miami’s Carter Davis to seal the game. However, upon digging deeper, Miami limited Notre Dame’s rushing prowess to just 93 yards. And this is a team that ranked 17th in rushing offense.

Not just that, Notre Dame’s current Heisman contender, Jeremiyah Love, who has rushed 1,372 yards this year, was limited to just 33 rushing yards. Not to mention, Miami also forced an interception from QB1 CJ Carr, who has just 6 interceptions this season. Moreover, who can forget those 3 sacks that Miami pummeled on Carr when Notre Dame just had one sack in the game? The scoreline might not signal Miami’s dominance, but the team was utterly dominant in the game.

Despite that, many have argued that Notre Dame is to be a better team throughout the season. That certainly is true. The Fighting Irish did a dominant 70-7, steamrolling over Syracuse. Against a resilient Pitt team, Notre Dame posted 37 points, limiting them to just 15. All in all, apart from the USC game, which ended 34-24, Marcus Freeman’s boys have truly exceeded expectations dominantly on the field with their wins. But the head-to-head record still makes things bleak for the team.

Miami unexpectedly makes the playoffs through a wild scenario?

The official college football playoff website lists several criteria to make its ranking decisions. The topmost is, of course, the strength of schedule, but at the second spot comes head-to-head competition. Comparative outcomes of the common opponents are listed third, while “other relevant factors” is the fourth criterion to come to a final decision. However, since both teams’ records and strength of schedule are comparable head-to-head comparison should take over as listed by the committee.

“A year ago, we had to almost campaign and debate things a little bit because everybody had some valid points. Now this year, I think it’s just a matter of continuously presenting the facts. At the end of the day, it’s two teams with the same record, a common opponent, identical metrics, and we played the game. We played the game, and we won the game,” said Miami head coach Mario Cristobal. 

By the looks of the current state of things, Miami looks to be getting out of the CFP contention, barring a miracle. If BYU wins against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the Hurricanes, ranked 12th, will have no chance to make the playoff. Moreover, in that case, Notre Dame, ranked 10th, can also be out of the CFP contention if Alabama wins the SEC title game, since three teams outside the top-10 will have to be accommodated, including a G-5 conference winner.

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But if BYU loses, either Notre Dame or Miami will make the playoff. Currently, it looks to be Notre Dame. However, it can change when the CFP Committee’s final rankings are released. However, an interesting scenario can play out, too, in favor of Miami.

If Duke, which is playing its ACC title game against Virginia, wins, the team won’t earn an automatic bid with a 7-5 record. In that case, the committee will have to select two G-5 teams, and ACC will have no representation in the playoffs. That can certainly lead to widespread furore. So, in that case, the committee can most likely favor Miami over Notre Dame to give the ACC its sole representation in Miami. It’s a wild scenario, but this seems to be the only way Miami is going to make the playoffs.