Pat McAfee has earned a reputation on College GameDay for often backing teams that aren’t the favorites. This gutsy style gave him a 5-4 record in Week 12 of 2025, with some misses but memorable shocks that make GameDay picks exciting. So this time, on Week 13, the 38-year-old is going against SEC powerhouse Auburn and making a case for the FCS team, the Mercer Bears.

Auburn is a massive favorite, with a 27.5-point spread and a daunting moneyline of -8000. That means just four touchdowns will be enough for the Tigers to snag a win. However, during the GameDay picks, McAfee “predicted a straight-up win for Mercer over Auburn today.” But will that be possible with a freshman Deuce Knight making his first proper career start for the Tigers in the absence of Jackson Arnold?

Mercer is set to be an underdog with a +1800 moneyline. That’s a serious gap, but it’s not surprising given Auburn’s SEC power stature versus Mercer’s FCS hot streak. Auburn has struggled with offense this year, sitting at 4-6 and dealing with a benched QB and coaching drama. But their defense has remained solid. They have limited opponent’s rushing yards to just 2.7 per carry. It ranks them 3rd in the SEC and 10 nationally. However, their passing defense has been relatively weak.

The Tigers are giving up 241 passing yards a game and rank 108th nationally in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8). Their biggest problem has been surrendering big chunk plays through the air. One bright spot, though, is linebacker Xavier Atkins. He’s been huge, leading the SEC in tackles for loss (15.5) and tying for the league lead with 78 total tackles. On the offensive side, Deuce Knight will be the one making his proper head start into the season, sharing his reps with Jackson Arnold. Arnold got benched by former coach Hugh Freeze in the Arkansas game after he threw a pick-six.

On the flip side, Mercer is riding high after a turnaround season. They went 9-1 in the Southern Conference and already punched their FCS Playoff ticket. Quarterback Braden Atkinson has been a star, tossing 3,253 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Bears’ strong ground game and offensive line have made a big difference. The Bears come in with the top total offense in the country and the No. 2 passing attack, putting up 41.7 points a game. As for the prediction? Don’t count on a close one. The spread is massive for a reason. Still, Mercer’s a solid FCS squad and won’t just roll over. Ideally, the Tigers can grab some momentum and confidence, heading into the Iron Bowl.

It’s Deuce Knight’s night

The Auburn Tigers’ quarterback room has been buzzing with tension lately. Amid Jackson Arnold’s faltering on the field, interim head coach DJ Durkin has some real concerns, mainly about losing their five-star freshman, Deuce Knight, to the transfer portal. The Tigers are 4-6 this season, a campaign marked by struggles at quarterback. So, Durkin’s caught between managing a quarterback carousel and keeping one of Auburn’s top prospects happy.

Knight is one of the most highly ranked QB recruits in Auburn history. And it’s just fair that he’s itching to see the field. The weight of sitting on the sidelines has turned into real frustration for Deuce, fueled by not getting consistent snaps. Mike Gittens, a college football analyst, has been loud about it. “If you’re not starting Ashton Daniels, then you gotta start Deuce. I completely agree. I don’t think you can roll Jackson Arnold out there. Now you can win with Jackson. You’ll win pretty easily,” Gittens said.

“But if you’re DJ Durkin, you have to… send a message to Deuce that he’s the next guy up.” Additionally, Arnold, despite some competence, has the fewest touchdown passes among SEC starters with just six and about 1,263 yards. Knight’s background adds context to this tension. Coming out of George County High School, he was a powerhouse with 2,067 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in his senior year, plus 450 rushing yards and twelve scores on the ground. So, it’s no surprise he’s unsettled about waiting his turn.