Notre Dame finds itself in one of the strangest positions imaginable heading into Championship Weekend. They sit at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings as the last at-large team in, yet they are completely powerless to control their own destiny.

What makes this situation particularly maddening for Notre Dame fans is that their fate hinges not just on who wins Saturday’s games, but on how teams win, especially in the Big 12 Championship between No. 4 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU. And among all of this is one scenario that just might save Notre Dame. But it is borderline impossible.

Scenario A: The Nightmare, BYU Wins

Let’s start with the worst-case scenario for South Bend. It’s pretty straightforward. If BYU beats Texas Tech on Saturday night in Arlington, Notre Dame is almost certainly out of the playoff. It doesn’t matter if it’s by one point or 50. A BYU victory sends two Big 12 teams to the playoff. Texas Tech isn’t falling out of the top four entirely with a loss, given they’re 11-1 and already demolished BYU 29-7 back in November. The Red Raiders would simply slide into an at-large bid. And BYU would claim the Big 12’s automatic qualifier spot.

However, only 12 spots are available, so someone will have to be bumped. And that someone would be the team sitting at No. 10 without a conference title game safety net. 

Scenario B: The not-so-bad scenario, Texas Tech wins

This is what Notre Dame fans should be rooting for. A Red Raiders victory might eliminate BYU from playoff contention entirely. This scenario essentially preserves the status quo. Texas Tech stays near the top of the bracket, BYU drops out, and Notre Dame maintains that precious No. 10 spot. 

However, this scenario pits Notre Dame against Miami, requiring the CFP selection committee to reassess their records. Miami triumphs over Notre Dame because of their head-to-head win back in late August. 

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But this is still a better scenario because if Virginia wins and they are in, then the committee may have less pressure to put Miami in since the ACC is not entirely being left out. So, they might override the head-to-head.

The Impossible Scenario: Notre Dame into the playoffs

This is the scenario that Notre Dame might secretly be hoping for. However, it requires a specific sequence of events that borders on fantasy. The Irish need Texas Tech to win, but not by too much. Why? Because if Texas Tech blows out BYU by a huge margin, the Cougars could plummet in the rankings and fall below No. 12 Miami. It will create a back-to-back ranking situation with Miami, where the selection committee has hinted they might prioritize head-to-head results. 

So Notre Dame needs BYU to lose but maintain their position high enough to create separation between the Irish and Hurricanes. Ideally, Texas Tech should win at the last moment, maybe by a last-second field goal, where the Cougars are eliminated but not embarrassed. Good luck predicting that.​

The Alabama Factor

Georgia versus Alabama in the SEC Championship represents another critical pressure point for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. The cleanest scenario for the Irish is a Georgia blowout of Alabama, which would give the Crimson Tide a third loss and possibly cause the committee to slide them behind Notre Dame. However, no team should be hurt by a conference championship game. It undermines the game’s purpose and will likely lead to teams abandoning it if they are on the verge of being eliminated. 

What makes this entire situation so frustrating for Notre Dame is the complete lack of control. They did their job. They won 10 games, dominated opponents down the stretch, and positioned themselves on the right side of the bubble. 

But as an independent program, they’re at the mercy of results in games they have no stake in. So now the Irish wait, hoping for Texas Tech to win by just the right margin. And for Georgia to beat Alabama. And for Virginia to take care of business against Duke. Selection Sunday at noon can’t come fast enough. But for Notre Dame fans, it might bring more heartbreak than celebration.