For BYU football, the path to the College Football Playoff is straightforward: they need to win their last two games against Cincinnati and UCF to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship. If they win the Big 12 title, they automatically qualify for the expanded 12-team playoff. But what happens if they lose the Big 12 title game?

On November 16, college football insider Josh Pate hopped onto his namesake podcast and broke down BYU’s playoff picture. Pate explained, “Brigham Young is at 11. I’ve got a concern about them. I know that it’s an unwritten rule that you don’t get punished if you make a conference title game and you’re in the top 12 and you lose the conference title game.”

In other words, the committee has followed this precedent in the past, but it is not an official rule. The committee reviews each season independently, and this year’s circumstances could shift their decision-making. He then noted the committee could face a tough dilemma if BYU finishes 11-2 after losing the Big 12 Championship. In that scenario, BYU would not be guaranteed a playoff spot, especially if other two-loss teams like Miami or Oklahoma remain in the hunt.

There’s also the possibility that the committee simply runs out of room. With multiple teams making strong late pushes, the No. 11-ranked BYU could be squeezed out even if it enters championship weekend inside the top 12.

Pate reminded listeners that predicting the committee’s behavior is never easy. Last season, for example, the committee kept SMU in contention even after it lost its conference title game against Clemson. Both teams made the playoffs, but that does not guarantee the same outcome for BYU, particularly with No. 6 Texas Tech as its likely opponent. Still, BYU’s strength of schedule (sixth in the nation) could work in its favor. Their only loss came against Texas Tech, which strengthens their résumé compared to other two-loss teams. But with so many moving parts, nothing is specific.

Pate argued that a Big 12 title game loss should not eliminate BYU from the playoff. “If you’re in the top 12 going into conference title Saturday, you could lose by 150. We’re not bumping you out. We’re not punishing you for playing in a conference title game…We’ll see, we’ll see.”

Based on last year’s example, where Texas made the playoff with two losses, both to Georgia, Pate believes BYU should remain firmly in the conversation even if they come up short against Texas Tech. But it’s up to the Playoff Committee to decide who gets the grub and who doesn’t.

Kalani Sitake’s Message to Playoff Committee

After the TCU game, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake made it clear he was not stressing about the CFP rankings. BYU showed completely different energy compared to its sluggish performance against Texas Tech. Especially with how aggressively they ran the ball. But when Sitake was asked about the CFP Committee’s Week 11 decision, he immediately shut the door on the topic. “Yeah, I don’t get involved in that. Just going to keep playing ball. So, yeah, I’m probably the wrong guy to ask about that stuff. We just play ball,” he said.

Sitake also ensured that people understood that BYU’s improved style of play was not a calculated move to impress the committee after the Texas Tech game. He stressed that everything they did was about winning, not optics or rankings. As he put it, “I just want to win the game, and I mean, winning is the best style to me. So yeah, I wasn’t thinking about any of that stuff.” His message was simple: focus on playing better, not chasing approval.

To close it out, Sitake described why BYU went conservative late in the game. He said their goal was to protect the lead and finish strong, avoiding turnovers and unnecessary risks. “We were just trying to grind the clock, and we went really conservative at the end, trying to just end the game, you know. So, I was just happy with how the guys responded,” he added.

For Sitake, the priority was discipline, execution, and getting the win, not trying to sway the College Football Playoff Committee.