The Big 12 championship game presents a win-or-go-home scenario for Kalani Sitake’s BYU Cougars. Even if Texas Tech loses, the committee still guarantees it a spot in the top 12. However, BYU doesn’t get that same security, sitting at No. 11 between No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 12 Miami. However, both those teams are 10-2 and won’t feature today. As per the Big 12 commissioner, the Cougars should never have been in this situation.

“BYU’s body of work at 11-1 is being undervalued by the CFP committee. When you do a blind resume comparison, there’s no doubt BYU is in the top 10,” Brett Yormark said.

The claim was simple: the CFP committee is favoring the usual “blue bloods” from the SEC and Big Ten. Meanwhile, BYU has the résumé to back up a much higher ranking, especially when you stack them against No. 9 Notre Dame. The Irish significantly jumped into the schedule, complaining about their tough schedule. But you know what’s ironic? BYU’s résumé backs up the frustration. The Cougars sit at No. 35 in strength of schedule, ahead of Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Miami. Virginia, by comparison, is all the way down at No. 82.

BYU faced six of the nine Big 12 teams that finished with winning records, and their strength of record? A strong No. 6. Under Big 12 Coach of the Year Kalani Sitake, the Cougars have been one of the most balanced teams in the country. They’re putting up 34 points per game (22nd nationally) and giving up just 17.8 (14th). A huge reason? True freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year has been a headache for defenses all season, breaking the school record for rushing TDs by a QB with 11.

Then there’s LJ Martin. The running back is the Big 12’s leading rusher with 1,229 yards and a First-Team All-Big 12 nod. Defensively, safety Tanner Wall and linebacker Jack Kelly lead a unit that lives off takeaways, racking up 16 interceptions. And the only blemish on BYU’s record? A road loss to Texas Tech. So, keeping all the metrics in place, BYU should have been inside the 12-team berth without having to prove them against the Raiders once again.

Even the CFP chairman Hunter Yuracheck said, “Their schedule strength and record strength metrics are really, really high. They’ve got a win over 15th-ranked Utah and a win over 18th-ranked Arizona, and their metrics rank really, really high, as well.” Believe it or not, BYU just became the first Power Four team in CFP history to finish 11–1 in the regular season and still get ranked outside the top 10. If BYU loses to Texas Tech, that’s it. The Cougars are out of the playoff picture, especially since they’re already sitting just outside the 12-team field.

When reporters asked Kalani Sitake how he felt about the committee’s selection process, he gave a grounded, no-nonsense answer. “Yeah, I don’t get involved in that,” he said. “Just going to keep playing ball. So, yeah, I’m probably the wrong guy to ask about that stuff. We just play ball.” But there’s still a wild scenario out there. If a five-loss Duke squad upsets Virginia in the ACC title game, an 11-2 BYU could sneak back into the mix. How much help they get probably comes down to how close this loss would be.

Who has the edge? 

BYU is facing Texas Tech second time this season. This matchup is very important for Kalani Sitake’s squad to enter the 12-team berth as discussed. But let’s look at the odds for this game. Both teams are placed in the Arlington stadium with the first quarter in play. Texas Tech enters as a -12.5 point favorite over BYU, with a 49.5 total points line. They are riding the wave of their 22-point regular-season demolition of the Cougars back in November.

That Lubbock thrashing exposed BYU’s vulnerabilities, as Tech’s explosive passing attack shredded the Cougars’ secondary for chunk plays. BYU’s counterpunch? A beefy offensive line and balanced run game, leaning on RB LJ Martin if healthy to grind yards and extend drives, but few teams have cracked Tech’s front seven all year. The narrative flips on three fronts: Tech’s vertical bombs testing BYU’s pass defense, which limited big plays statistically but folded like a lawn chair last time.

Then the trench war where Cougars must win the line to avoid third-and-longs; and turnovers, where BYU needs steals to flip the script after protecting the ball well but stalling in enemy territory. As per predictions, Red Raiders roll 36-17, covering the spread handily and blasting over 49.5, securing playoff contention while slamming the door on BYU’s dreams.

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