But as debates rage over that unlikely caution robbing a dominant run, a sharp Insider’s view shifts the spotlight from unlucky caution to bad decisions made in the pit stop as the real culprit for Hamlin’s loss.

The pit road gamble that sealed Hamlin’s fate

On PRN Live, NASCAR veteran analyst Chris Knight laid it bare without pulling punches. “Was I shocked that Denny Hamlin didn’t win the championship? Absolutely, but I can’t be mad about it, right? Kyle Larson did nothing wrong,” Knight said, his tone mixing empathy with maturity. He went on, “So while I hate it for Denny, and I hate it for Joe Gibbs Racing, and I hate the circumstances, I can’t be hypocritical and say, ‘This is wrong,’ because that’s not what I’ve been preaching for so long. Denny and their team, they made a wrong choice.”

Knight’s words cut deep and straight, zeroing in on the decision that was made on the final pit stop under caution on Lap 309, when Hamlin‘s team swapped all four tires for fresh grip in overtime. That call, meant to build long-run speed, took a few extra seconds and dropped him to 11th on restart, while Larson’s two-tire swap vaulted him to fifth. In the final two-lap showdown, Hamlin clawed to sixth but couldn’t close the gap, handing Larson his second championship.

This wasn’t Hamlin’s first costly strategic call. Back in 2019 at Homestead, a tape added to his grille for extra speed blocked airflow to the engine and caused it to badly overheat, forcing a green-flag stop that dropped him from third to fourth among finalists. Hamlin has entered the Championship 4 six times, but couldn’t win any of them because of these types of strategic failures.

Yet crew chief Chris Gayle advocated his team’s choice after the Phoenix race, stating, “The 5 [Larson] was doing it, this was their only shot. Really, it was gonna dictate just how many other cars stayed and fit in between you. I think four tires was the right call; it just didn’t get clear on the bottom, and I thought for a split second we were. The 5 got the outside, and we were just boxed in with chaos.”

Gayle’s defense highlighted the gamble’s logic: four tires promised stability and grip, eventually resulting in more speed in the final tightly packed laps. But Knight sees it as the strategic misstep that let Larson‘s bold play steal the show, turning Hamlin’s all-race dominance into dust.

And in contrast, Larson’s crew nailed the final two laps, restarting higher in position among the four title contenders and maintaining the bottom lane to keep all third-title chasers behind, proving two tires were enough for the final two-lap sprint. Knight’s take echoes a raw truth: one bad call is enough to tremble the strongest of the empires.

Kenny Wallace feels Hamlin’s near-miss ache

Kenny Wallace knows the pain of these gut punches all too well, flashing back to 1991 when brake woes at Martinsville’s finale handed the Busch Grand National title to Bobby Labonte. Wallace, carrying his brother Rusty’s legacy, had notched his first win that year in Volusia Speedway, but fading stops before Lap 50 crushed his charge.  This loss took a mental toll on Kenny, and he has to attend therapy sessions because of nightmares about that race.

“I can relate,” Wallace shared recently. “In 1991, I lost the Busch Grand National Championship on the very last race at Martinsville to Bobby Labonte. It crushed me. I took sports therapy. There, I admit it…”

Wallace spots the same shadow in Hamlin’s Phoenix heartbreak, urging the veteran to face roots for relief. He ties it to Hamlin’s recent hometown track visit, a nod to confronting pain head-on. “Most likely, Denny got some great advice from sports therapy,” Wallace noted. He addressed how, when a person has recurring dreams, the only way to stop them is to go to the origin. The origin means the place where the dreams happen.

Though that loss continues to frighten Kenny Wallace. “It destroyed me,” he confesses. With Denny Hamlin facing a similar setback at Phoenix Raceway, could the veteran driver bounce back after such a defeat, or wilt under the pressure, accepting his fate as a top Cup Series driver who never won the championship? Time will tell.