How long will Joe Gibbs hold out? A year ago, JGR was one of the top contenders in the Championship run. Although Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. bowed out of the playoffs early, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell were fighting it out. However, Bell succumbed to a penalty-laden Martinsville finish, while Hamlin’s poor finishes snuffed him from the final Championship 4 race. Meanwhile, a certain driver climbed from an afterthought to a three-time Cup Series champion.

Yes, that is none other than Joey Logano, the No. 22 Team Penske Ford driver. He cracked the 2024 playoffs with a quintuple overtime race win and almost got eliminated from the Round of 8. So if a driver teetering on the brink of disaster can suddenly rise above everybody else, Denny Hamlin has serious doubts about his team’s future.

Denny Hamlin casts a pall of skepticism

Well, there is plenty to be content about at present. Joe Gibbs’ stars have been on a roll in the Round of 16. Chase Briscoe defended his Southern 500 victory under a different manufacturer, and then Denny Hamlin clinched his first-ever Gateway win. In the latter race, Christopher Bell showed potential race-winning speed and finished 7th due to engine issues. However, Bell rebounded majestically in Bristol, tackling extreme tire fall-off and a hodgepodge of strategies to win. Even Ty Gibbs, who missed the playoffs, led a race-high 201 of 500 laps at Bristol before trouble accessing pit road and a collision with Austin Hill‘s Chevrolet. This jaw-dropping streak has put JGR on top of the championship conversation – but Denny Hamlin does not agree.

The 44-year-old title aspirant is scrutinizing every next step of his team, as the playoffs are built that way. Despite JGR’s dominance in the Round of 16, there is no guarantee that all drivers will not crash out in the next round. So Hamlin said in a recent ‘Actions Detrimental’ episode, “But we reset every round, guys.” Then Hamlin said that no matter what fruits they bring in the succeeding races, what matters is the final battle, or the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway. He continued, “The championship runs through Phoenix, it doesn’t run through JGR…One race, and anything can happen, anything at all.”

What also matters is how JGR measures up against its toughest rival, Team Penske. The latter has dominated the championship conversation for the past three years, with its drivers becoming relevant when nobody expected them to. With Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney’s past clutch performances, Denny Hamlin sees another threat. He said, “So we’ve seen someone not talked about all year win the race, win the championship. That’s just where it is. I understand it’s a great narrative and I’m very, very happy for JGR…but in one race, who knows? We gotta get there first. And these next two rounds have some bumpy racetracks.”

Another reason for Denny Hamlin to be worried lies within his own No. 11 team. Yet, NASCAR has a little relief for him.

A thinning pit crew for Denny Hamlin

Many times in the past, Denny Hamlin has thrived on his team’s flawless pit stops. From his 2023 New Hampshire performance to the 2024 Richmond race, Hamlin’s pit crew is known for its speed. However, Hamlin will lose two assets of that team ahead of the next two races. On lap 385 of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, Hamlin’s No. 11 car shot up the track and collected AJ Allmendinger. What is more, its right-front wheel disconnected and rolled off, attracting a two-lap penalty. NASCAR did not stop there, as two important crew members on Hamlin’s team will sit out the following two races.

Front tire changer Austin Maloney and jackman Joel Bouagnon cannot work in New Hampshire and Kansas. However, a new rule introduced ahead of the 2025 campaign allows JGR to defer the penalty for one week. If the organization opts to defer, the suspension would instead begin at Kansas and run through the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Roval.

Mike Forde, NASCAR’s managing director of racing communications, clarified: “What we did at the beginning of the year was we said that if there is a suspension that’s not a behavioral penalty, that the suspension can be deferred without an appeal request for the next event following the issuance of the penalty. So if the 11 team would like their two crew members to be part of the New Hampshire race, they can request a deferral. The appeals administrator would be the one who does grant that or not grant that. There is a pretty much 100% success rate (of granting the deferral).”

Clearly, Denny Hamlin has a lot on his plate heading into the following races. Let’s see if the JGR driver can live up to the ambitions of his team.