In 2023, Jon Rahm made a record-shattering LIV Golf move with a reported $500 million contract. While it was supposed to signal control, security, and star power, former PGA Tour pro Smylie Kaufman warns that it could turn out to be detrimental for the Spaniard, especially after Brooks Koepka’s exit.

“Bryson [DeChambeau] is the box office for LIV. He has all the leverage in the world now that Brooks has left. Jon Rahm might as well be sitting in a coffin,” Kaufman warned on The Smylie Show. “He is in the worst spot you could possibly be because he signed later. His contract runs through later.

“So his issue now is that, ‘Okay, one of the players that at least I could compete against, where I could go head-to-head, and at least somebody that I’d competed against in major championships, now he’s gone. If Bryson’s not playing, all of a sudden Rahm’s like, ‘Shoot, what did I do?'”

Here’s why Rahm is in a tough spot: Brooks Koepka’s representatives announced on December 23, 2025, that the 5x major champion won’t compete in LIV Golf for the 2026 campaign. He cited spending more time with the family as the reason to opt out despite a contract running through 2026. LIV Golf’s CEO Scott O’Neil confirmed the same, stating that it was an amicable and mutually agreed-upon decision.

Now that Brooks Koepka has left, there’s one less promising golfer on the roster for Jon Rahm to compete against. The 11x PGA Tour winner was ranked 3rd in the OWGR when he joined the Saudi-backed league. However, both his performance in the majors and his rankings have plummeted since then. Many experts and analysts say this is because the LIV roster is less competitive than the PGA Tour’s.

Golfer and commentator Brandel Chamblee, for instance, wrote in an X post that LIV Golf is “an ephemeral, flamboyant make-believe tour.” Former PGA Tour pro Nick Faldo said something similar in April 2025.

Currently, there are very few competitive golfers left on the roster, and one of them is DeChambeau. And though the golfer doesn’t intend to switch to the PGA Tour, he has been somewhat noncommittal with LIV.

“It’s where I want to be, but ultimately, it’s got to make sense for everybody. Because I could just do YouTube golf and be totally fine as well,” he said earlier this week. That makes matters worse for Rahm.

Kaufman’s co-host and producer, Charlie Hulme, pointed out that the only two marquee names joining LIV are Victor Perez and Laurie Canter. However, those two don’t really fill the shoes of Koepka.

“You’re losing Brooks. And the whole goal with this format change this offseason, going from 54 to 72 holes, is to work our way towards OWGR points, and then the hopes of bringing guys in who have higher standings in the OWGR would be to raise the rating of those fields,” Hulme highlighted.

With Koepka leaving, the field strength would decrease further. This makes it challenging for Jon Rahm to maintain his best performance, especially with external factors. He signed a contract in December 2023, joined the events for the 2024 campaigns, and his deal is widely believed to run through the 2027 season.

Then, there are also the DP World Tour fines.

The DP World Tour has yet to announce its decision on the fines for Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton for joining LIV Golf. If the decision does not come in his favor, things could get worse for Rahm.

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DP World Tour’s fines on Jon Rahm

Similar to the PGA Tour’s one-year ban, the DP World Tour also imposed suspensions and financial penalties, varying from £12,500 ($16,829) to £100,000 ($134,639) for each violation of conflicting events, in addition to suspensions. Fines incurred by LIV golfers were paid by the Saudi-supported league through 2025. Beginning in 2026, golfers must personally pay any fines to play on the DP World Tour.

Jon Rahm, along with Tyrell Hatton, has opposed the fines. Although a committee is reviewing the complaint, the decision could likely be against Rahm, as happened in the case of PGA Tour pros. And if that happens, Rahm will have to pay hefty fines to play in the DP World Tour events. If he does not, he will not get a chance to collect OWGR points from anywhere except the majors and won’t be eligible for the Ryder Cup.

He could either pay the fines or forfeit the DP World Tour membership entirely, like Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood.

So, Smylie Kaufman’s warning frames Jon Rahm’s LIV deal as a gamble that now looks far less comfortable. With Brooks Koepka gone, the league’s competitive depth is thinning. All in all, this can make Rahm’s OWGR improvement very challenging.